对外贸易对新疆工业化的影响研究

Research on the Effect of Foreign Trade on Xinjiang's Industrialization

经济理论和实践经验都表明,工业化是世界各国经济发展的普遍规律、基本内容和轨迹。而现代工业发展和工业化的进程却离不开对外贸易,对于落后国家更是如此。文章分析了对外贸易对工业化的重要意义,从资本积累、技术进步与创新和产业结构优化三个方面论述了对外贸易与工业化之间的关系。进而采用新疆的数据进行实证分析,建立了出口依存、进口依存度进口对工业化率的因果关系的回归模型。结果表明,进、出口依存度是影响新疆工业化水平的主要因素,尤其是出口贸易的影响更加显著。

The Economic theory and practical experience have shown that industrialization is the uni- versal law, basic content and trajectories of economic development in the world countries. The modern industrial development and the industrialization process can not do without foreign trade, especially for the backward countries. This paper analyzes the importance of foreign trade for the industrialization and the relations between the foreign trade and industrialization from the capital accumulation, technological pro- gress, innovation of the industrial structure three aspects. And then, the authors use the data for empirical analysis of Xinjiang, establish the causal regression model between the export and dependence and industri- al rate. The results show that import and export dependence are the major factor affecting the level of in- dustrialization in Xinjiang, especially the export trade is more significant.