应用趋势季节模型预测医院医疗收入

Application of Seasonal Trend Model in Predicting Hospital Medical Income

目的探讨趋势季节预测模型预测医院医疗收入的可行性。方法运用趋势季节模型方法对2012年某医院门、急诊和住院收入进行预测。结果某医院2012年的门诊预测医疗收入为9011.64万元,预测值范围为7657.52万～10365.77万元,住院医疗收入预测值为13100.35万元,预测值范围为11016.87万～15183.83万元。结论医院医疗收入数据既有长期趋势,又存在季节性波动,符合趋势季节模型的使用条件,其预测结果可为医院为制定经济管理责任目标和发展规划提供参考。

Objective To establish a seasonal trend model and to predict the hospital medical income of 2012.Methods The seasonal trend model was applied to predicting hospital medical income of 2012.Results The expected outpatient medical income of 2012 was 90.12 million RMB,its predictive range was 76.58 to 103.66 million RMB.The expected inpatient medical income of 2012 was 131.00 million RMB;its predictive range was 110.17 to 151.84 million RMB.Conclusion The long-term trend and seasonal vibration in the hospital medical income was suitable for the seasonal trend model,and the results can be used to make economic objectives for hospital management and to provide foundation for the development planning.