卫星雪盖监测与玛纳斯河融雪径流模拟

Satellite Snowcover Monitoring and Snowmelt Runoff Simulation of Manas River in Tianshan Region

根据国家“九五”重点科技攻关项目“冰雪水资源和出山口径流量变化及趋势预测研究”专题( 96- 91 2 - 0 1 - 0 2 )的部分研究内容 ,运用改进后的融雪径流模型 ( SRM) ,通过天山雪盖的卫星遥感监测和流域模型参数的研究 ,实现了对玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站春季逐日流量的数值模拟 ,结果表明 ,模拟的确定系数可达 0 .89,模拟积差为 5.1 ,满足应用精度 。

The updrafted Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) was applied to the daily snowmelt runoff simulation of Manas River based on the spring snowcover monitoring of Tianshan Region by using the NOAA/AVHRR satellite data.The results showed that the coefficient of determination of the simulation could reach 0.89,and the deviation of the runoff volumes was within 5.1.If the parameters can be adjusted according to the method described in this paper,the model will be easily used to the similar basins.