近2000a温度变化及全球变暖不确定性

Temperature Change over the Past 2000 Years and Global Warming Uncertainties

近年来有关温室气体,特别是CO2浓度上升导致的全球气候变暖将引起灾难性后果的理论,已成为全球关注和讨论的重点.本研究通过分析和总结器测资料和最近2000 a来温度序列,得出如下观点和结论:1)全球变暖是客观存在的,但是全球升温的幅度存在不确定性;2)人类活动和自然因素共同影响着气候变暖,仅从自然因素方面考虑未来存在降温的可能,因此未来温度的变化趋势很难预测;3)过去2000 a来冷暖变化频繁交替,最近100 a来的升温速率是否是过去2000 a中最大的时期存在不确定性.因此,在得出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度,明确这些不确定性.

In recent years,the theory that the increase of greenhouse gases concentration,especially that of CO2,has caused global climate warming and will further lead to catastrophic consequences,has become the focus of global concern and discussion.Based on the analysis and review of instrumental data and temperature changes during the past 2 000 years,we suggest that 1）as an objective fact the global climate warming occurs with great uncertainty in the magnitude of temperature increase;2）both human activities and natural factors contribute to climate changes,with their relative contributions difficult to quantify.In the future,nature induced cooling is possible to happen,showing difficulties in the prediction of future temperature change;3）The frequent alteration of warm and cold climatic periods over the past 2 000 years indicates that whether the warming rates in the last 100 years was the greatest still remains uncertain.We argue that much more efforts should be made in order to clarify the uncertainties.