摘要
联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)报告近百年升温约0.74℃,并将气候变化归因于人为排放的温室气体,然而该报告中的多处结论引起了国际社会对IPCC报告的广泛质疑.人为排放的温室气体对全球升温贡献有多大?人为过程与自然过程对全球变暖分别贡献多少?IPCC评估报告中过去百年0.74℃的变化是否为变冷总趋势中的次级波动?针对这些问题,本研究梳理了近年来全球气候变化的相关研究成果.结果显示,第四纪以来的地球气候波动主要受控于太阳辐射变化周期,各个时间尺度上的气候变化既表现出明显的周期性,也同时存在次一级的波动.在全新世晚期气候变冷的背景下,气候变化千年—百年尺度上同样存在一系列周期性和次级波动,且波动范围在0.5～6℃之间变化.IPCC报告中百年气候变暖的合理解释是全球变冷趋势下的次级波动.
According to a report by UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）,the earth′s mean air temperature rose by 0.74 ℃ during last century,as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gas.However,many conclusions of the report are controversial.What is the contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to global warming？ Does human factors play a key role in global warming？ Can the 0.74 ℃ be explained as one of secondary fluctuations in the general cooling trend of global climate？ We argue that since the Quaternary,climatic changes on earth were mainly controlled by the periodic change of solar radiation.Since the late Holocene the global climate showed a cooling trend,but there were many secondary fluctuations,whose changes of mean air temperature could range between 0.5 ℃ and 6 ℃.Therefore,we would rather consider the warming in the IPCC report as one of such secondary fluctuations.
出处
《亚热带资源与环境学报》
2012年第1期40-46,共7页
Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment
基金
福建省教育厅科技项目(JA11061)
福建省公益类科研院所专项基金(2010R1037-3)
国家自然科学基金项目(41072124
40830105
40721061)
福建省大学生创新实验计划项目(FJNU2011-034)
福建师范大学本科生课外科技计划项目(BKL2011-059)
关键词
气候变化
全球变暖
大趋势
次级波动
IPCC报告
climatic change
global warming
general trend
secondary fluctuations
IPCC report
