摘要
CO2温室效应导致全球变暖的观点尚有辩驳的余地.目前CO2是否为气候变化的驱动力还在争论之中.根据牛顿第二定律,讨论驱动力的变化应该从加速度也就是增长率的角度来深入.从增长率的角度来研究,可以发现CO2增长率(12月减1月)与温度增长率(年均温度之差)的波动节奏一致,但是温度的增长率没有明显的长期趋势,而CO2增长率长期持续升高,表明两者驱动力有些关联又有些区别.计算表明CO2在长期的地质历史时期以及短尺度的现代变化中都落后于温度的变化,它不是温度变化的驱动力而是产物.CO2的增长率的表现可以理解为自然和人为2种作用力的合力作用的结果,前者保证了它与温度的年际节奏一致,后者提供了长期趋势的变化.线性回归的结果表明,人类活动排放的CO2对大气的CO2的贡献率为48.4%.
The point of view that green house effects of CO2 has led to modern global warming still remains debatable,and whether increasing CO2 concentration drives climate change is also under discussion.According to Newton′s second law,a driving force is directly connected with acceleration.So we propose that the growth rate of CO2 concentration be introduced into discussing the relationship between changes of global atmospheric temperature and CO2 concentration.Based on this theory and related calculations,it is found that annual mean growth rates of CO2 concentration （difference of concentrations between the end of December and the start of January within a year） and atmospheric temperature （difference of global annual mean temperature between this and last year） show the same rhythm in annual fluctuations,but it is not the case for long-term geologic periods.Further analysis demonstrates that over long time scale,the change of CO2 concentration lags behind that of temperature,by which we conclude that CO2 concentration change is not a driving force of temperature change,but probably a result of the latter.In addition,the same annual rhythm and different long term trends of their growth rates can be attributed to natural and anthropogenic factors,respectively.Linear regression analysis confirms that anthropogenic CO2 emissions contribute 48.4% to CO2 concentration variations.
出处
《亚热带资源与环境学报》
2012年第1期61-68,共8页
Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment
基金
国家科学基金资助项目(41072124
40830105
40721061)
关键词
CO2
温度
驱动力
增长率
carbon dioxide
temperature
driving forces
growth rate
