我国外商直接投资周期波动分析

An Analysis on Cycle Fluctuation of Foreign Direct Investment in China

运用增长率直接法、增长率趋势法分析我国外商直接投资的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动,基于协整方法讨论外商直接投资的长波特征。研究发现:自1978年以来,我国外商直接投资经历了9次短周期、3次中周期波动(目前的第3次中周期波动具有适度高位平滑的特征)、2次中长周期波动(目前正处于第2次中长周期波动的扩张期),外商直接投资长波与GDP长波特征基本相同。

The short cycle, medium cycle and medium-long cycle of foreign direct investment（FDI） in China has been analyzed using the methods of direct growth rate and growth rate trend, and the characteristics of the long wave has bee-n researched by cointegrafion method. It shows that since 1978 the FDI of China has gone through 9 short cycles, 3 medium cycles, two mediumlong cycles. The long wave of FDI is similar wih the long wave of GDP.