基于投影寻踪原理的云南旱灾评估

Assessment on Drought Disaster in Yunnan Province Based on the Principle of Projection Pursuit Method

为了能够对复杂的干旱灾害系统进行灾后评估,反映云南旱灾灾后综合损失,为云南防旱抗旱减灾策略提供理论依据。以云南1950—2009年的旱灾受灾、成灾面积,粮食损失为评价指标,采用投影寻踪法得到分级评估后的综合评价指标。结果表明:云南是一个干旱灾害频发且严重的省份,平均2.3年就会出现一次比较严重的旱灾,60年来重大灾害以上发生频次和旱灾损失程度不断上升,给云南经济社会带来了巨大影响,特别是2000年以来的10年期间,发生重大灾害以上次数高达9次,其中重大灾害1次,特大灾害8次。

The aims were to assess the complicated drought disaster system after the drought,reflect the drought disaster indicator of Yunnan Province,and provided the theories which work on the stategy of drought-proof.Now the affected area and the loss of food stuff was used as the assess index from 1950 to 2009.The evaluation was got by projection pursuit,which showed that the happening of the drought in Yunnan Province was so frequently and seriously.It appeared every 2 or 3 years one time.In 60 years,the happening frequency and the loss extent of the major disaster was getting higher and higher.There was a great influence on the economy society,especially the 10 years since 2000,there ＇ s 9 disasters happened,one major and eight large.