基于信息扩散理论的东北三省农业洪灾风险评估

Risk Assessment on Agricultural Flood of Northeast China Based on Information Diffusion Theory

为解决农业洪涝灾害风险评估时常会遇到的小样本问题。采用正态信息扩散方法,将单值观测样本点转化为集值样本点,进行东北三省的区域农业洪涝灾害风险评估,并利用ArcGIS平台制成了该区域的农业洪灾风险图,直观地展示了东北地区农业洪灾风险的空间分布和空间变化趋势。该结果为政府的减灾和应急管理以及保险公司的农业灾害保险方案规划提供借鉴。

In order to solve the difficulty of using rare sample for risk assessment on agricultural flood,normal information diffusion method was adopted to assess the regional agricultural flood risk of northeast China by transferring the single value sample to set sample.It made a series of agricultural flood risk map and shows the agricultural flood risk distribution in northeast China.It also made out the spatial changing trend of the flood risk as the magnitude of flood disaster increasing.The research would provided some useful decision-making information for the disaster reduction and emergency management departments.Meanwhile,it was also meaningful for determining the agricultural disaster insurance rates for the insurance companies.