近30年牙克石春季桃花水气象条件分析

Analysis on Meteorological Conditions of Snowmelt Flood in Yakeshi in Last 30 Years

为了找出桃花水的发生规律、预报着眼点,积极采取防范措施,为牙克石防灾减灾的决策服务提供依据。通过数理统计分析方法对牙克石1981—2010年桃花水发生情况、降水量和气温进行统计分析。结果表明:桃花水发生条件与冬季降水量和开春期的气温变化有密切关系。牙克石3—4月气温变化过程和冬季降水量是影响桃花水的主要因素,桃花水灾情持续时间与冬季降水量呈正比,桃花水的发生几率呈上升趋势。就牙克石而言,当上一年的冬季降水量≥58.4 mm,次年3月日平均气温≥-4.4℃,日最低气温≥-15.4℃时,应注意防范桃花水。

In order to find the method of predicting snowmelt flood and the active measure against it and provide the basis for decision-making services for disaster prevention and mitigation in Yakeshi.The author focused on disaster data of snowmelt flood,precipitation and temperature during from 1981 to 2010 in Yakeshi by the method of mathematical statistical analysis,discussed the laws of the disaster of snowmelt flood.The results showed that snowmelt flood and condition of winter precipitation and spring period temperature changes were closely related.From March to April,the temperature of variation process and winter precipitation were the major factors influenced the snowmelt flood,the duration of the disaster of snowmelt flood was proportional to winter precipitation,disaster risk was clear increasing trend.For Yakeshi,when winter precipitation of last year was greater than or equal to 58.4 mm and in March of the next year,daily average temperature more than-4.4℃,daily minimum temperature was greater than or equal to-15.4℃,people should pay attention to the prevention of snowmelt flood.