要素投入、碳排放与经济增长的关系研究——以重庆为例

The Relationship Among Factor Inputs,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth——Based on Chongqing

为对碳排放与经济系统各要素之间关系进行比较系统的观察,本文尝试建立一个包含有环境要素的增长核算框架。立足于这个分析性框架,本文揭示了重庆市经济系统中各要素的传导路径,并对减排冲击和未来经济增长前景给出了说明,主要研究结论如下:(1)经济增长单向引致了碳排放,而由于人力资本的作用,投资与碳排放不存在因果关系;(2)近25年来,在重庆市10.6%的平均经济增长率中,碳排放贡献点数为1.68%,资本投入是经济增长的主要贡献;(3)低碳约束对经济增长影响很大,为保持经济持续稳定增长,短期内投资幅度不应该消减,长期来看发展人力资本是均衡的增长路径。

For the system on carbon emissions and economic relations between the various elements to engage in systemat-ic observation,this paper attempts to establish a growth with environmental factors accounting framework.Based on this ana-lytical framework,the paper based on Chongqing elements of the economic system in the conduction path was revealed,and the emission reduction impact and future growth prospects given the description of the main conclusions are as follows：（1） Economic growth caused by a one-way carbon emissions,and because the role of human capital investment and there is no causal relationship between carbon emissions;（2）Nearly 25 years,an average of 10.6 percent growth in carbon emissions con-tribute to about 1.68% points,as the main contribution to capital investment;（3）Low carbon constraint great impact on eco-nomic growth,in order to maintain steady economic growth,short-term investment rate should not reduce the long term to de-velop human capital is more suitable for the growth path.