产业多样化结构及其演变规律——基于中国地级城市数据的非参数估计

On the Industry Diversification Structure and its Evolution Pattern——Non-parametric Estimation Based on Chinese Prefectural Cities

以非参数估计的方法拟合出多样化指数与地区人均收入之间的真实关系。实证结果表明,地区多样化指数与人均GDP之间存在稳健的倒U型曲线关系,多样化指数随样本中城市收入的增长呈先增加后减少的变化趋势。这一规律与单个理论所预言的线性变化模式不同,反映出不同机制在经济发展过程中的协同作用。

This paper estimates the real relations between diversification index and local income per capita by using the non-parametric method.The empirical results show that the relationship between local diversification index and GDP per capita reveals a robust inverted-U shaped curve.As urban income increasing,the diversification index experiences an evolution pattern by increasing firstly and decreasing at last.This pattern is different from the linear evolution pattern predicted by any independent theory.The different mechanisms produce synergy effects during the economic development process.