天津地区冷暖度日数年变化特征及趋势分析

Annual variation characteristics of degree-days and the trend analysis in Tianjin

度日数是重要的建筑节能气象参数之一,在一定程度上反映着建筑采暖空调系统能耗水平。城市气候变化直接导致了建筑冷暖度日数的改变。文章利用天津市1951～2010年历史气象资料进行统计分析,发现天津地区冷暖度日数均发生了显著的变化:1995～2004年的平均采暖度日数最小,比1963～1972年平均采暖度日数减少了20.9%;冷度日数却呈逐年上升的趋势,10 a平均冷度日数最大值是最小值的2倍多。K-M检验结果表明:α=0.05水平下,采暖度日数从1990年开始显著降低,冷度日数自2005年起显著增加。

Degree-days,to some extent,indicates the building energy consumption of heating and air conditioning systems and it＇s one of important meteorological parameters used by the building.Climate change led directly to the change of cooling and heating degree-days.Using 60 years of statistical data from 1951 to 2010,it was discovered that a significant change has occured in both heating and cooling degree-days： the average of heating degree-days from 1995 to 2004 has reduced 20.9% than the average from 1963 to 1972,however,cooling degree-days has a increasing trend,and the maximum value of 10-year-average was more than 1 time than the minimum value and the results of M-K test indicate that when the significant level was 0.05,significant lower heating degree-days have taken place since 1990 and cooling degree-days has a significant increase after 2005.