基于不确定性理论的煤炭城市可持续发展评价模型

Evaluation model of coal cities' sustainable development based on uncertain theory

为正确评价煤炭城市在工业化进程中的可持续发展状况,避免造成此类城市"矿竭城衰"的局面,考虑到煤炭城市可持续发展评价中存在较多不确定性因素,以及评价指标众多不易挖掘潜藏规则的问题,本文将云模型、粗集以及熵权理论三者有机结合,建立评价模型,对我国25个主要煤炭城市的可持续状况进行合理评价。首先,在综合考虑影响煤炭城市可持续发展各因素的基础上构建了指标体系并利用云变换对初始数据进行离散化,然后通过属性约简对指标体系进行简化,接着根据简化后的指标体系运用熵权法获取指标权重,最终利用X-条件云发生器确定了各煤炭城市的可持续发展等级,为进一步提高煤炭城市的可持续发展水平提供了一定的依据。

To correctly evaluate coal cities＇ sustainable development condition in the process of industrialization,avoiding the situation of ＂mine exhaust city decline＂ in such cities,considering many uncertain factors of evaluation of coal cities＇ sustainable development,as well as numerous evaluation indexes which are difficult to dig latent rules,this paper organically combines cloud model,rough set with entropy theory and establishes evaluation model,making reasonable evaluation of the sustainable development condition of our country＇s 25 major coal cities.Firslly,constructs the index system on the basis of considering various influencing factors of coal cities＇ sustainable development and uses cloud transform to make discretization of the initial data,then simplifies the index system through reduction of attributes;secondly,uses the entropy weight to determine the index weight according to the simplified index system,finally determines the sustainable development level of every coal city by X-condition cloud generator,providing certain basis to further improving coal cities＇ sustainable development level.