经常账户调整的福利损失——基于两国模型的分析

The Welfare Loss of the Current Account Adjustment: an Analysis Based on a Two-Country Model

本文在考虑当前全球贸易失衡主要方中美两国的贸易结构和贸易特征的基础上,建立了一个两国的DSGE模型,分析了包括汇率升值、再工业化等可能改善经常账户的政策影响经济的传导路径和影响程度,以及这些影响的决定因素。在此基础上分析了不同政策对经常账户的改善程度以及对不同国家的产出和居民福利的影响,并进行了比较。研究发现,所有能够改善经常账户的政策都会导致世界贸易规模和逆差国消费下降,这对中国出口导向型的经济形成了非常严重的挑战。此外,顺差国扩大内需的政策不但能够改善经常账户而且对其他国家影响也很小,是一种最优的政策。

On the basis of considering the structure and characteristics of trade between China and America,which are the most important part in the current global trade imbalances,we have constructed a two-country DSGE model.We have used this model to analyze the channels and the degree of impacts of policies that influence the economy-policies that can possibly improve the current account(CA)-,including the exchange rate appreciation and re-industrialization.On this basis,we have analyzed the effect of different policies on the degree of improvement of the CA and on the output of different countries and on the welfare of their residents,and made a comparison.By our study,we have discovered that all policies that can improve the CA will result in the decline of the scale of international trade and of the consumption of deficit countries,which cause a very serious challenge to China's export-oriented economy.In addition,the policy,for expanding domestic need,of the countries with favorable balance of trade,can not only improve the CA,but also have very little impact on other countries,and therefore,this policy is an optimal policy.