内蒙古制造业能源消费的组合预测模型

Combination Forecasting Model of Manufacturing Energy Consumption in Inner Mongolia

以内蒙古制造业能源消费为研究对象,首先利用2001～2009年内蒙古制造业能源消费数据,采用时间序列模型和灰色预测模型分别建立了内蒙古制造业能源消费的单项预测模型,并对各单项预测模型的优缺点进行了比较分析;然后采用标准差法进行权重分配,建立了内蒙古制造业能源消费的组合预测模型;最后,运用组合预测模型对内蒙古"十二五"期间的制造业能源消费量进行了预测。结果表明,组合预测模型的预测精度高于任一个单一预测模型,该模型可作为内蒙古未来制造业能源消费量预测的有效工具。

Manufacturing energy consumption in Inner Mongolia is taken as the research object. Firstly, we respectively make use of time series analysis method and grey forecasting to construct single model based on the data of 2001- 2009, analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these models. Secondly, we propose combination forecasting model of manufacturing energy consumption in Inner Mongolia by using standard variance to allocate the weights. Finally, this model is applied to forecast Inner Mongolia manufacturing energy consumption in the twelfth five year plan. The result shows that the combination model is the best one with higher forecast accuracy; we can take the model as an effective tool to predicl： manufacturing energy consumption in Inner Mongolia.