中国服务业分行业生产率变迁及异质性考察

Productivity Changes and Heterogeneity in China's Service Sub-industry

本文采用全国两次经济普查后的修订数据,引入"技术不会遗忘"假定,运用序列DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法测算了1990—2010年中国服务业细分行业的全要素生产率(TFP)、技术进步、纯技术效率与规模效率增长率。结果表明,中国服务业总体及细分行业的TFP均处于上升通道,在上世纪90年代,服务业TFP增长的主导因素是技术效率改进,进入21世纪后,则主要是技术进步提高,且技术效率改进已开始由以纯技术效率为主转向以规模效率为主,但服务业发展的粗放型特征仍然明显。同时,中国服务业TFP增长表现出了较大的行业异质性;与工业(制造业)行业对比,服务业TFP增长是滞后的。2010年与1991年相比,TFP及技术效率增长的行业间异质程度有所下降,而技术进步却有进一步拉大的迹象。可能的内在机制是现代信息技术对不同服务业企业资源配置的异质影响,以及中国服务业体制改革的渐进式道路。

This paper measures the growth rates of total factor productivity（TFP）,technological progress,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency in China＇s service industries from 1990 to 2010,using sequential DEA-Malmquist productivity index method,based on the revised data after the first and second national economic census and the assumption that ＂technology will not be forgotten＂.Empirical results suggest that services TFP in overall level and sub-industry level are all rising.The dominant factors leading to TFP growth are technical efficiency improvements in the 1990s and technological progress after 2000.Technical efficiency improvements have gradually transformed from pure technical efficiency to scale efficiency,while the extensive features of service industries development are still evident.Meanwhile,China＇s services TFP growth demonstrates strong heterogeneous pattern and lags behind that of manufacturing industries.From 1991 to 2010,the inter-industry heterogeneity of technical efficiency and TFP has decreased,while that of technological progress is increasing.Possible intrinsic mechanisms are the heterogeneous effects of modern information technology on the resource allocation of the different service firms and the gradual path of service industries＇ institutional reform in China.