转轨国家经济绩效的动态比较分析

Dynamic Comparison of Economic Performance in Transition Countries

作为经济转轨的两种方式,渐进式改革和激进式改革孰优孰劣,一直是转轨经济学理论争论的焦点之一,围绕此形成了两种截然不同的学术观点。那么,到底哪种观点更能得到实践的支持,针对该研究问题,以24个转轨国家作为研究样本,运用整体比较和分阶段比较的研究方法,从整体上和分阶段两个方面对渐进式改革的国家和激进式改革的国家的经济绩效进行评价和比较,研究结论基本支持渐进式改革方式从整体上更有利于经济发展的观点。但是作为对现有研究的补充和发展,发现个别激进式改革的苏东国家在转轨后的第四个阶段其经济绩效水平要高于渐进式改革的国家。

There are two main transition approaches,incremental reform or radical reform.Which one is better is always a heated debate and forms two conflicting academic perspectives in transition economics theory.Focusing on this issue,the paper takes 24 transition countries as research examples to compare economic performance in countries with incremental reform and radical reform by utilizing comparison method.The conclusion reveals that countries taking incremental reform have better economic performance than with radical reforms overally.The creative point lies in that some countries with radical reform have better economic performance than those with radical reform in the fourth phase from transition baseline time.Finally,three academic contributions of this paper are summed up.