投资结构、对外开放与劳动力流动影响二元经济结构的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on Effect of Investing Structure, Foreign Trade and Labor Flow upon Dual Economic Structure

在一个引入FDI的二元经济模型中可以证明,二元经济结构的变动是由包含FDI在内的投资结构、劳动力流动和两大部门的技术差距所造成的,因此,在现有技术水平上,只要优化投资结构和合理引导劳动力流动,就可以改善二元经济结构。这可以为基于中国数据的面板协整检验所证实,且其效应具有显著的区域差异特征;同时,实证检验结果还显示,固定资产投资、FDI和劳动力流动均会改善二元经济结构,而对外贸易则会发挥相反的作用。就区域差异来看,变量调整会恶化发达省份的二元经济结构,而改善发展中省份的二元经济结构,这为在区域间和城乡间优化投资结构提供了实证支持。

A model of dual economy involving FDI proves that change of dual economic structure results from investing structure including FDI,labor inflow and technique gap between the two sectors.So dual economic structure should be improved if investing structure is optimized and labor inflow is rationally directed with present technology.This is rectified by cointegration test on Chinese panel data and effects vary in different regions.Empirical conclusion indicates that fixed asset investment,FDI and labor flow better dual economic structure,but foreign trade plays a negative role.As to regional differences,the variable＇s alteration worsen dual economic structure in developed provinces and better dual structure in developing ones,which give an empirical proof to optimize investing structure among regions and between urban and rural areas.