货币供给冲击、货币需求冲击与中国宏观经济波动

Money Supply Shocks,Money Demand Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China

基于由贝叶斯技术估计的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,识别和分析货币供给与货币需求冲击对产出和通货膨胀波动的影响,结果表明:货币供给冲击对产出和通货膨胀波动均能够产生同向影响,但对产出波动的影响不明显,仅能解释其不足2%的波动,而对通货膨胀波动的影响比较强,长期内可以解释其26%以上的波动;货币需求冲击对产出和通货膨胀波动的影响都不明显,长期内对二者波动的解释能力均低于0.6%。因此,在应对通胀压力时,央行可以运用数量型货币政策工具,对高通胀势头实施积极的紧缩性宏观调控。

This paper identifies and analyzes the impact of the shocks of money supply and demand on fluctuations of output and inflation,basing on the Bayesian estimated New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model.Results show that,the impact of money supply shocks on output and inflation fluctuations in the same direction,but no significant effect on out put volatility,and can only explain less than 2% of output fluctuations;the impact on inflation volatility is relatively strong in the long term and can interpret more than 26% of inflation fluctuations.However,the impact of money demand shocks on output and inflation fluctuations is not significant in the long term and can only explain less than 0.6% of output and inflation fluctuations.Thus,in response to the inflation pressures,the central bank can use the quantitative monetary policy tool to further tightening monetary policy actively.