近50a新疆塔城地区冷季降水变化特征

Analysis of Cold Season Precipitation Character in Tacheng in Recent 50 Years

利用塔城地区9个气象站1960～2009年11月至次年4月降水量资料,采用数理统计方法分析了塔城地区冷季降水的气候统计特征及其变化。结果表明:近50 a塔城地区冷季降水极值除塔城外,其余8站均出现在2009年;冷季降水以3.7 mm/10 a的速率显著增加,降水稳定但其月际分布不均匀;21世纪前10 a冷季降水最多,1960年代最少2,009年为冷季降水异常偏多年,1982年为异常偏少年;塔城地区冷季降水序列在20 a左右的时间尺度上主要经历了"少—多—少—多—少—多"的交替演变,预计塔城地区冷季降水增加趋势还将持续,其年际变化有着7～8 a的振荡周期。

Based on precipitation data from 9 meteorological stations in Tacheng from November to April during 1960-2009,the climatic statistical characteristics of precipitation in cold season in Tacheng region was analyzed by using mathematical statistics analysis method.The results show that the extreme value of precipitation in cold season in Tacheng region occurred in the year of 2009 except Tacheng in recent 50 years.The cold season precipitation increased significantly with the rate of 3.7 mm/10 a,but monthly distribution was not uniform.Precipitation in cold season was most in early 10 years of the 21 century and least in the 1960s,and abnormal more in 2009 and abnomal less in 1982.The precipitation sequence in cold season in Tacheng region had alternate evolution with ＂ less-more＂ on 20 years time scale,and the interannual variation with 7-8 years oscillation cycle,and cold season precipitation in Tacheng increasing trend could be expected to continue.