基于旱灾指数的宁夏小麦产量分析

Analysis of Wheat Yield Based on Drought Index in Ningxia

在分析历年旱灾情况的基础上,建立了反映土壤水分供应状况和降水状况的综合旱灾指数,并以此为框架构建了旱灾累计指数评估模型,可用于逐月监测、评估宁夏中部干旱带和南部山区各县冬小麦产量。结果表明,这些模型能够较准确地反映历年旱情和评估小麦产量,并且方法简便,适合于西北地区东部干旱监测与灾害评估。

Based on analysis of historic drought events,an integrated drought index which can reflect soil moisture and precipitation was established in this paper,and the accumulative drought index model was structured for monitoring and estimating the dry zone in the middle region of Ningxia and winter wheat yield in the south mountain area month by month.The results show that the model can reflect drought occurred in past years and evaluate winter wheat yield well and truly.The model is simple and suitable for estimating drought disaster in eastern region of Northwest China.