建设用地扩张影响因子的选取及分析

Choice and Analysis of Influence Factors in the Expansion of Construction Land

研究目的:研究建设用地规模扩张的影响因子,并选取相关性较显著的因子,建立多元回归模型。研究方法:对统计数据中的诸多影响因子进行相关分析,筛选剔除存在多重共线性以及与建设用地相关性较弱的因子,建立科学的多元回归模型,并与灰色GM(1,1)模型法的结果作比较。研究结果:所选取的驱动因子合理,其与建设用地扩张的趋势相适应,建立的多元回归模型可靠。研究结论:多元回归模型法可以较好的拟合建设用地发展趋势,并可对用地扩张规模及需求进行预测。

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the influence factors in the expansion of construction land,and select some factors those have strong correlation with land increase,to build multiple regression model.The research method：Make correlation analysis within several influence factors.Filter and kickoff some factors of wick correlation and multicollinearity.And then we can build up scientific multiple regression model.After that,we also make comparison with the result of Grey Model（1,1）.The results indicate that the selected factors are also reasonable,which are also appropriate to the construction land expansion.It shows that the model we build is reliable.It is concluded that the multiple regression model could well fit the development trend,and predict the expansion scale and demand of construction land.