上市公司年度盈余持续性影响因素研究

Influence Factors of Earning Persistence based on Annual Data of Listed Companies

盈余持续性是公司盈余质量的基本特征,高持续性盈余可使得历史会计数据更具有决策相关性。利润表上列示的毛利以及在毛利基础上扣除三项期间费用后的利润为决策者经常使用的盈余指标。在使用财务指标分析法、改进的财务指标分析法和ARIMA模型计量法计量以上两个指标持续性后,得到的结果显示:不同公司盈余持续性差异较大,这对持续性的计量方法不敏感;与在毛利基础上扣除三项期间费用后的利润指标相比,公司毛利具有更好的持续性,更少受到经济因素的影响。总体而言,公司财务杠杆对盈余持续性具有显著的负向影响;公司规模与资本密集度对盈余持续性存在正向作用,但是这两个因素的显著性取决于持续性测度的计算方法;而实际控制人性质对盈余持续性没有影响。

The persistence of earning is an important characteristic of earning quality.The higher persistence the earning is,the more relevant the historic accounting data are.Two levels of earning are used to explore the influence of the earnings of listed Chinese companies in this research,which proposes improved financial index analysis as a new method to measure earning persistence.By using financial index analysis,improved financial index analysis,and autoregressive integrated moving average model（ARIMA model）,the study result shows that there are great differences among firms,a phenomenon that is robust to measuring earning persistence.Moreover,gross profit is more persistent,and the economics factors have less impact on it.In short,financial leverage has significant negative effect on earning persistence;company size and capital intensity may have a positive effect,but the significance of their effect depends on the method chosen,and the actual controller has none influence at all.