新亚欧大陆桥新疆段环境灾害时空分维特征研究

STUDY ON SPACE-TIME FRACTAL DIMENSION CHARACTERISTICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS IN XINJIANG LINE OF NEW EURASIAN CONTINENTAL BRIDGE

基于区域自然灾害发生的随机性和不确定性 ,运用分形、混沌理论 ,对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段近 38年的环境灾害受损次数进行了时空分维特征研究。结果表明陆桥新疆段受损状况不仅在时间序列上具有自相似性 ,其容量维 Df在 0 .830 2～ 1 .437之间 ,而且在空间序列上也具有自相似性 ,存在明显分维结构 ,其信息维 D1在 0 .0 997～ 0 .1 2 72之间。灾害严重区段的容量维值较大 ,并且容量维值越大 ,灾害事件中等级的复杂程度就越高 ,这一特征将有助于认识灾害发生规律和动力学特征。

Fractal and chaos theory is a subject on entering a kind of special disordered state in the process of system evolution. In this paper, based on the random and indefinite of regional natural disasters, the space time fractal dimension characteristic of the environmental hazards in Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge is studied by using the fractal and chaos theory. The analysis of 38 years hazard data shows: the environmental hazards in Xinjiang line have self similarity not only in the time alignment (volume fractal dimension D f varied from 0.8302 to 1.437), but in the space alignment (informative fractal dimension D I varied from 0.0997 to 0.1272). Moreover, except for showing the grades of environmental hazards as time alignment by the relationship that volume fractal dimension D f is in inverse proportion to the complicity of hazards, and the space alignment can reveal the irregularity of environmental hazards distribution. Results from this is useful for us to recognize the inner regularity and dynamic characteristic of the hazards.