水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型与应用

Integrated model of sustainable water resources planning:formulation and application

介绍了水资源可持续利用规划耦合模型和应用实例。从数学形式上看 ,它是多目标优化模型 ,目标函数选用自由度较高并具竞争性的系统状态指标 ;约束条件应该包括各相关子系统的状态模拟方程 ,使模拟与优化实现耦合。在研究实例中 ,选用了 GDP和 COD排放量指标来表征研究区的经济发展和环境状况 ,约束条件主要包括水资源系统模拟模型和宏观经济系统扩大再生产—投入产出耦合模型。由于水资源可持续利用规划决策是半结构化的决策问题 。

This paper deals with the concept,formulation and a case study of integrated model of sustainable water resources planning. Water resources development involves multiple objectives,which often conflict with each other and are not commensurable.In general,they are identified as social objective,economic objective,and environmental objective.Social and economic developm ent dem ands more water supply,and produces more waste,which has negative impacts on the environment.Environment deterioration will thwart economic growth and social progress.Economic development will make it possible to invest more money in environmental improvement and to increase water supply. Sustainable water resources planning aims to achieve a balane between these needs.The goal of this paper is to develop a model framework,which can assistin model design for sustainable water resources planning. Mathematically,an integrated model of sustainable water resources planning is a multiobjective programming model,which has maximum social,economic and environmental benefit objectives,subjectto a series of constraints.As to a specific region, sustainable water resources development means the soical- economic- environmental- water resources system develops in a harmony and ordered state.The model,which integrates water resources system state equation,environmrnt system state equation and macro- economic state equation,among other constratints can regulate the system to the designed goals while maintaining its performance within a specified range. In the case study,maximum GDP(Gross Domestic Production) and minm um COD (Chemical Oxygen Dissolution) discharge are designed as economic and environmental objectives respectively,and water resources budget equation,integrated enlarged reproduction and input- output equation,and stream flopw COD load equation etc are embedded as constraints. The sector output- value and allocation of fixed capital investment between economic sectors are decision variables.A water resources decision support system(WRDSS) is developed to gegerate solution to the model.Application of the WRDSS shows that the system can properly demonstrate macroeconomic state and environmental state under various water resources development policies and can assist decision- makers in evaluating water resources planning program s.