黑河流域水资源承载力分析计算与对策

Water Resources Capacity and Developing Strategies in Heihe River Basin

根据干旱区水资源开发利用阶段可用水资源的计算方法和内陆河流域社会经济发展及其需水预测 ,分析计算了黑河流域中游地区的水资源承载力。结果表明 ,当完成水资源开发利用第二阶段 ,可用水资源在首先保证未来 50 a内流域中游地区人口、环境和工业等部门发展的需水后 ,农业灌溉用水的总量将还有所增加 ,水资源不会成为社会经济发展的制约因素 ,可以使绿洲和农业走可持续发展道路。但东干流中游张掖盆地 ,因要在下世纪初完成分水指标 ,在下世纪的前 2 0 a农业灌溉用水有缺口 ,但只要加大农业节水力度 ,在此期间提前完成农业节水目标的60 % ,就能顺利渡过今后 2 0 a的社会经济快速发展时期。如果在 2 0 50年能按计划完成流域社会经济发展的预测目标 ,则届时流域人均国内生产总值将超过一万美元 ,可以达到世界中等发达国家的水平。

According to the available water resources and the predicting water consumption in different developing stages of Heihe River Basin, the water resources capacity of this basin has been caculated. After the second stage of water development and utilization, the available water resources for agriculture irrigation should has some increase besides it firstly meet the need of population, environment and industry of middle reaches area in the coming 50 years. Water resources should not be the limiting factor to social economic development, by which oasis and agriculture may develope sustainably. But in the Zhangyi basin on eastern Heihe branch, the available water resources for agriculture irrigation in the first 20 years of the next century will has deficit due to water saving index. As long as the water saving index is to be finished by 60% in the first 20 years, the fast development of social economics in the second 20 years ought to has ensurance of water resources.