居民消费演变特征事实及其对经济增长的影响

On the Stylized Facts of Private Consumption Changes and Their Effects on Economic Growth

消费需求不足已经成为当前中国宏观经济发展面临的主要问题之一。本文利用1978年以来相关经济数据,基于消费总量和消费结构的视角,总结归纳了改革开放以来中国居民消费演变的特征事实,并运用多变量脉冲响应函数,对居民消费与经济增长的相互影响关系进行了实证分析。研究发现,现阶段我国居民消费的暂时性增加对未来的经济增长可能产生抑制作用;政府支出对居民消费和经济增长具有滞后效应,但其影响是正向的;CPI的持续上升不仅不利于居民消费增长,对宏观经济的持续增长也会产生抑制作用;从长远来看,保持物价稳定、建立新的消费热点则是扩大内需和促进经济增长的关键。

Insufficiency of domestic consumption demand has been one of main problems that face China＇s macro-economic growth.Based on economic data since 1978,this paper summarizes the stylized facts of private consumption changes since China＇s reform and opening-up from the angle of gross consumption and consumption structure,and makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between private consumption and economic growth by using multivariate impulse response functions.It shows that the temporary increase in private consumption may inhibit future economic growth;government expenditure has lagged but positive effects on private consumption and economic growth;the constant rise in CPI is not only harmful to the increase in private consumption,but also has a negative effect on sustainable macro-economic growth;in the long term,to maintain prices and establish new consumption hot spots is the key to the increase in domestic demand and the promotion of economic growth.