摘要
In the past 30 years ,gold has metamorphosed form a principal reserve asset controlled by the major Central Banks,to mainly a luxury industrial metal principally used to create gold jewellery .Nevertheless gold still retains many of the characterisics of a principal reserve asset ,in particular reataining the charact eristics of an intemational "basket"currency. In evaluatin the value of gold going forward ,one has to consider the following factors; 1.Gold is likely to continue its trend of changing from a principal reserve asset to the principal industrial metal utilised for jewellery production. 2.The supply and demand for gold needs to be closely watche. Also oneneeds to pay attention to the currencies of major producing nations and consuming nations 3.Gold should not be viewed largely as a US Dollar asset.The apparent decline in gold prices in the last 3 years can be significantly explained by the strengthening of the US Dollar versus the gol supply and demand currencies .If the basket of golfd suply and demand currencies to UW Dollar as 3 years ago ,the gold price is approximately at 400 US Dollars per ounce.In the current economic climate it is unrealistic to expect a return to those levels of 400 US Dollars per ounce unless the US Dollar declines significantly in value.This is not to say however that gol cannot continue to increase i teal value terms if demand increases singificantly. 4.finally ,when estimating the value of gold it id critical to look at the enormous above ground stocks as well al the slow movement between the official sector and private sector uewellery.
In the past 30 years ,gold has metamorphosed form a principal reserve asset controlled by the major Central Banks,to mainly a luxury industrial metal principally used to create gold jewellery .Nevertheless gold still retains many of the characterisics of a principal reserve asset ,in particular reataining the charact eristics of an intemational 'basket'currency. In evaluatin the value of gold going forward ,one has to consider the following factors; 1.Gold is likely to continue its trend of changing from a principal reserve asset to the principal industrial metal utilised for jewellery production. 2.The supply and demand for gold needs to be closely watche. Also oneneeds to pay attention to the currencies of major producing nations and consuming nations 3.Gold should not be viewed largely as a US Dollar asset.The apparent decline in gold prices in the last 3 years can be significantly explained by the strengthening of the US Dollar versus the gol supply and demand currencies .If the basket of golfd suply and demand currencies to UW Dollar as 3 years ago ,the gold price is approximately at 400 US Dollars per ounce.In the current economic climate it is unrealistic to expect a return to those levels of 400 US Dollars per ounce unless the US Dollar declines significantly in value.This is not to say however that gol cannot continue to increase i teal value terms if demand increases singificantly. 4.finally ,when estimating the value of gold it id critical to look at the enormous above ground stocks as well al the slow movement between the official sector and private sector uewellery.
