中国西北寒旱区农牧民生活碳排放评估

An Assessment on the Subsistence Carbon Emissions of Peasants and Herdsmen in Arid-Alpine Regions,China

围绕碳排放权开展的气候谈判愈来愈关注贫困人口与弱势群体的生存权与发展权,一方面由于受制于其薄弱的社会经济水平,贫困人口与弱势群体在气候变化实践中表现出更高的脆弱性,另一方面则因气候变化减缓与适应行动而造成的贫困人口生活成本的增加以及生活水平的下降。然而,对这些地区和人口的排放权判断主要基于国家层面和地区层面宏观数据的分析,其结果掩盖了国家和地区内部不同社会经济水平下的人口排放差异,不能准确揭示贫困人口和脆弱群体的低碳排放事实。本文基于国际碳排放评估对人口生活排放的需求,结合IPCC参考方法,利用投入产出分析模型构建了人口生活碳排放评价指标体系,并用于对甘肃、青海和宁夏干旱-高寒地区农牧民生活碳排放的样本调查和分析。评估表明,中国西北干旱—高寒区人口生活碳排放仅为1.85tCO2/人,其中用于满足基本生活需要的碳排放量达到87.25%。研究发现,生活在更冷(海拔更高)区域内的人口生活排放量更高;随着家庭收入的增长,人口生活排放量也随之上升;家庭成员数量越多,家庭的人均碳排放量就会越低。

More and more attention is paid on the survival and development rights of the poor and vulnerable in climate negotiations which is carried out around the carbon emissions. On the one hand, it is particularly vulnerable for the poor and vulnerable restricted by the undeveloped socio-economic conditions in climate change adaptation. On the other hand, the living cost will increase and the living standards will decline due to climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. However, the relative studies are mainly based on the national and regional macroeconomic data which lead the analysis to cover the emission differences within the different socio- economic levels in various regions and can not accurately reveal the lower carbon emissions of the poor and vulnerable groups. Based on the international demand of carbon evaluations on the individual subsistence carbon emissions, in accordance with the IPCC＇s reference approach and Input-output Analysis （IOA）, this study designs an assessment indicator system for individual subsistence carbon emissions by input-output analysis model to sample inquiry and analyzes the subsistence carbon emissions of peasants and herdsmen in arid-alpine regions in Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia Provinces. The results show that the value of individual subsistence carbon emissions is only 1.85 tCO2 per capita in the study areas, among which the proportion of basic emissions （ the emissions from food and clothing consumptions） reaches 87.25%. In addition, the individual subsistence carbon emissions in alpine districts are higher than that in the lower altitude areas; the emissions would be increased along with the growth of family incomes; those which have more family members are characterized by the higher carbon emission efficiency and less emissions.