基于概率模型的潜射弹道导弹突防能力初探

Brief Study on Penetration Capability of SSBN Launched Ballistic Missile Based on Probability Model

为了更好地对潜射弹道导弹的突防能力进行定量评估,直观显示评估结果,采用数学解析的方法对其突防能力进行定量评估。根据弹道导弹防御系统的实际情况,只考虑潜射弹道导弹在中段和末段进行突防时的突防能力。从评估结果可以看出,数学解析方法能够较为客观地对潜射弹道导弹的突防能力进行定量评估,为潜射弹道导弹的发展和改进提供参考,并为潜艇部队使用潜射弹道导弹提供依据。

In order to quantify penetration capability of SSBN launched ballistic missiles,and directly display the evaluating results,the mathematics analytical method was adopted.Based on the fact of ballistic missile defense system,the penetration capability of SSBN launched ballistic missiles should be calculated at the middle phase and terminal phase.The evaluating results show that the mathematics analytical method could ensure the quantitative assessment on the penetration capability of the SSBN launched ballistic missiles objectively.The conclusions could provide reference for development and improvement of SSBN launched ballistic missiles,and provide basis for submarine army on the utilization of the SSBN launched ballistic missiles.