应用逐步判别法进行中稻白叶枯病流行的中期预测

The Mid range Forecast for Bacterial Leaf Blight by Stepwise Discrimination Analysis

根据安徽省稻白叶枯病重病区六安和滁县地区 1979～ 1996年的历史资料 ,采用逐步判别分析法 ,分析气候条件与白叶枯病稳定期病情的关系 ,结果表明 :6月份月均温、降雨量、雨日和日照 ,7月份月均温、相对湿度、降雨量、雨日和日照与白叶枯病情密切相关 ,分别组建了六安和滁县地区一季中稻白叶枯病中期预测模型 ,历史符合率达 10 0 %。

According to the historical data derived from Luan and Chaohu city from 1979 to 1996, the relationship between meteorological factors and the final severity of bacterial leaf blight damaging middle-season rice were analyzed by means of stepwise discrimination analysis. The result showed that the final severity had closely relation to average temperature per month, rain capacity, rain-day, relative humidity and sunshine hour in the period from June to July. A mid-range forecast model for the bacterial leaf blight damaging middle season rice in Luan and Chaohu city was set up, respectively. The percentage of the mid forecast corresponding to historical data was 100%.