中国烟草产品出口波动影响因素探析

On the Influence Factors of China′s Tobacco Product Export Fluctuation

近年来我国烟草行业为经济发展创造了大量的利税收入,尽管烟草产品出口所占比例逐年增加,但竞争力却在逐渐减弱。基于二阶分解的恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型),本文利用中国1995-2010年的烟草出口数据,实证分析我国烟草产品出口波动的影响因素,认为我国烟草行业要素禀赋决定的成本差别比较优势正逐渐地消失,决定中国烟草产品出口波动的主导力量是不断变化的全球烟草出口结构,竞争力是影响出口波动的次要因素,而前两者的交互作用是影响出口波动的第三位因素。

In recent years,tobacco industry has created a large number of tax revenue for economic development in our country.The proportion of tobacco export is increasing year by year,but the competitiveness is gradually weakening.In this paper,based on the two-order decomposition Constant Market Share model（CMS model）,China′s tobacco export fluctuation factors are empirically analyzed,using China′s tobacco export data from 1995 to 2010.The conclusion shows that,China′ tobacco industry comparative advantages decided by element gifts are gradually disappearing.The dominant force which decides China′s tobacco export fluctuation is the changing global tobacco export structure,competitiveness is the second,and interaction between them is the third factor influencing export fluctuation.