进口贸易结构对我国经济增长的影响——基于技术进步视角的实证分析

The Influence of Import Trade Structure to China's Economics Growth——An Empirical Analysis based on the Perspective of Technology Progress

文章采用1980-2008年的相关数据,运用协整理论、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型等方法,基于技术进步视角实证分析了进口贸易结构对我国经济增长的影响。结果表明:初级产品、工业制成品的进口都能促进我国技术进步,工业制成品进口对技术进步的作用大于初级产品;然而,初级产品中的食品及主要供食用的活动物类、饮料及烟草类和工业制成品的轻纺产品、橡胶制品矿冶产品及其制品类的进口对技术进步具有阻碍作用。进口贸易结构与技术进步之间不存在双向因果关系,技术进步还未从总体上改善我国的进口贸易结构,进口贸易结构改善与技术进步之间的良循环并未形成。最后,提出进一步优化我国进口贸易结构的政策建议。

This paper makes an empirical analysis on the influence of import trade structure to China＇s economics growth from the perspective of technology progress using Co-integration theory,Granger-causality test and ECM based on the statistics data of China during 1980-2008.The result indicates that seen from both the long-term and short-term perspective,the import of Primary Goods and Manufactured Goods all can lead in technology progress and Manufactured Goods have more function than Primary Goods.However,the import of Food and Live Animals Used Mainly for Food,Beverages and Tobacco,Light and Textile Industrial Products,Rubber Products,Minerals and Iron Products fail to promote China＇s technology progress.And that there is no a two-way causal relationship between import trade structure and technology progress,technology progress can＇t promote China＇s import trade structure and virtuous cycle has not formed between import trade structure improvement and technology progress.Finally,this paper brings forward some advices for improving China＇s import trade structure.