FDI对中国服务业影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Impact of FDI on China's Service Industry

本文利用1997-2009年的数据,对外商对中国第三产业直接投资与中国服务业的产值之间的关系进行了实证分析,通过OLS检验了外商对中国第三产业直接投资与服务业的增长存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。研究结果表明,外商对第三产业的直接投资对中国服务业的变动有很大影响。从上述实证分析中可以看出,外商对第三产业的直接投资对中国的服务业的增长有着长期稳定的均衡关系,1.07的弹性系数说明外商对第三产业的直接投资每增加1%,中国的服务业占GDP的产值就会增长1.07%。因此外商对第三产业的直接投资对中国服务业有着比较明显的促进作用。从Granger因果关系检验中可以看出,外商对第三产业的直接投资是促进中国服务业产值增长的原因,而服务业产值的增长却并不是吸引外商直接投资的原因。

The results show that foreign direct investment in the tertiary industry in China has great influence on changes in services.From the above empirical analysis shows that foreign direct investment in the tertiary industry in China＇s services sector has long-term equilibrium relationship,the elasticity of 1.07 shows that foreign direct investment in the tertiary industry increased by 1%,China the output value of the service sector in GDP will grow 1.07%.Therefore,foreign direct investment in the tertiary industry of China＇s service industry has a clear role in promoting.From the Granger causality test can be seen,foreign direct investment in the tertiary industry is to promote the cause of China＇s service industry output growth,while service sector output growth is not the cause of attracting foreign direct investment.