ARMA模型在土地利用需求量预测中的应用——以锦葫沿海地区耕地为例

Application of ARMA Model in Prediction of Land Use Demand——Take Farmland in Jin-Hu Coastal Area as Example

基于3S技术和Landsat TM遥感影像解译的1990、2000和2010年的锦葫沿海地区土地利用分类图,利用Arcgis计算这三个时期耕地面积,并采用线性插值方法得到1990～2020年间其他年份的耕地面积作为ARMA(p,q)模型预测的样本数据。应用Eviews 6.0软件得出耕地的预测模型为:xt=0.999 4 xt-1+εt-0.889 8εt-1。,据此预测出锦葫沿海地区2011～2020年的耕地需求量。研究可为土地利用空间模拟的科学性提供支撑。

Based on 3S technique and Landsat TM remote sensing images, the land use classification figures of Jin-Hu coastal area in 1990, 2000 and 2010 were obtained. Using Arcgis to calculate the farmland area in these three years, and by using the linear interpolation method to get the farmland area in the other years between 1990 and 2020, which are taken as the sample data for prediction by ARMA （p, q）model. Using Eviews 6.0 software to get the predicted model of farmland, which is x1=0.999 4 xt-l＋ε1-0.889 8 ε1-l, and according to this model, the farmland demand of Jin-Hu coastal area in 2011 -2020 was predicted. Therefore, this study can provide supports for scientific simulation of the land use space.