中国股票市场牛熊转换机制研究

Research on Bull and Bear Market Conversion in Chinese Stock Market

通过分析中国股票市场20多年所经历的7次牛熊转换,指出了导致股市发生大幅波动的因素,并对政策事件这一影响因素进行了实证分析。指出了政策事件会加剧中国股市的波动,即中国股市存在明显"政策市"的特征。最后,针对这一影响因素提出了相关的政策建议。

This paper, by analyzing 20 years of China＇ s stock market which have experienced seven bull and bear market conversions, points out the volatility of the stock market factors affecting the occurrence, and also makes empirical analysis of the impact factors or the policy incidents. The paper points out that the policy incidents will deteriorate the fluctuation of China＇ s stock markets and there exists obvious characteristics of ＂policy market＂ in China. Finally, the paper makes some policy recommendations with re^ard to this factor.