发展中国家债务状况及其前景分析

The Current Situation and Perspective of External Debt in Developing Countries

尽管 2 0世纪 90年代以来发展中国家外债规模不断增长 ,但由于内外诸多有利因素的作用 ,外债结构有所改善 ,债务压力得以减轻 ,债务问题对经济产生重大冲击的可能性减小 ,短期内不大可能发生全球性债务危机。同时 ,也应清醒地看到 ,发展中国家外债总体规模还十分庞大 ,经济增长和结构调整还面临着种种困难 ,经常项目逆差恶化 ,国别与地区间债务问题存在巨大差异 ,外债还严重困扰着重债穷国的经济与社会发展 。

Though the scale of external debt in developing countries has expanded from 1990s, the structure of external debt has improved and the pressure of debt has eased because of effecting by many beneficial factors. The possibility of significant impact on economy by debt has reduced and the global debt crises become impossible in short time. Meanwhile , we should be also understand the following facts: the total scale of debt in developing countries is huge; economic growth and structuring have faced lot of difficulties; the deficit of current account become worse; there are great difference among different countries and regions in debt issues; the external debt has still serious perplexed the economic growth and social development for those poor and having heavy debts countries. The idea of resolving debt issues promptly is unrealistic.