河北省有偿供血感染HIV者潜伏期和生存期回顾性队列研究

Retrospective cohort study on period of incubation and survival among former commercial plasma donors infected with HIV in Hebei province

了解有偿供血者感染HIV后的潜伏期和生存期状况。方法调查对象来自1995年河北省有偿供血普查发现的HIV感染者。共有142例HIV感染者作为潜伏期观察对象，其进入队列时间为感染时间，以溯源时间的中间值即1995年1月1日为感染日期，以发病为结局事件，观察终点为2010年12月31日，共观察192个月。共有57例AIDS患者作为生存期观察对象，发病时间为进入队列时间，死于AIDS作为结局事件。采用乘积极限法（Kaplan-Meier）对累积发病率、累积病死率、发病强度、病死强度等指标进行生存分析。结果观察期内，142例潜伏期观察对象中有123例发病，累积发病率为86.62%（123/142），发病强度为8.53/100人年，潜伏期中位数为112.0个月（95%CI：108.8-115.2）。123例发病者均于感染后3-176个月内陆续发病。57例生存期观察对象均于病后1-24个月残废，累积病死率为100%。病死强度为250.66/100人年，生存期中位数为3.0个月（95%CI：1.8-4.2）。从感染到残废的中位时间为115.0个月（9.6年）。结论有偿供血感染HIV者潜伏期和生存期分别为112.0、3.0个月。

Objective To examine the state of incubation periold and survival time of former commercial plasma donors（FCPDs） infected with HIV. Methods A ll objects infected with HIV were from Hebei province and found from general investigation for FCPDs in 1995. The infector cohort by 142 cases was used to estimate incubation period. In the infector cohort. the time which infectors entered the cohort was their infection time, which was the middle value of the origin date, which was January 1, 1995. The onset of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. End point of observation was Dec 31,2010. There were 192 months in all from beginning to end. The AIDS cohort by 57 cases was used to estimate the survival of the patients. In the patient cohort, the time of AIDS onset was defined as the time entering the cohort, and death of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. The cumulative incidence ratio, cumulative mortality, illness intensity and mortality intensity were analyzed through Kaplan-Meier. Results During the observation period, 123 eases of 142 infectors developed into AIDS.the cumulative incidence was 86.42% （123/142） and the intensity was 8.53/100 person-years and the median time of incubation period was 112.0 months （95% CI：108.8-115.2）. The death dates of 57 patients were from 1 to 24 months after onset. The cumulative mortality was 100% ,and the intensity was 250.66/100 person -years and the median survival time was 3.0 months （95% CI：1.8-4.2） . It was estimated that the median time was 115.0 months （9.6 years） from infection the death. Conclusion The median times of incubation and median survival time were 112.0 and 3.0 months, respectively.