直觉模糊集的水库洪水调度多属性组合决策方法及应用

Multiple Attribute Decision Making Combination Method and Application of Intuition Fuzzy Set Reservoir Flood Dispatching

针对水库洪水调度决策中"模糊概念"难于处理,决策中没有充分考虑不确定的犹豫度和最优权重确定具有片面性的问题,提出了基于直觉模糊集的犹豫度加权组合方法。通过解线性规划问题和设置确定性系数得到属性的组合最优权重。利用直觉模糊集充分表达了决策中的犹豫度信息,进而根据组合模型计算相对贴近度对方案进行排序。实验数据证明该组合模型通过调整确定性系数,可以对不同时期的水库洪水进行有效和合理的调度决策。

With an aim at hard handling of ＂fuzzy conception＂ in reservoir flood dispatching making-decision and at the problems without fully considering uncertainty hesitance degree in decision-making and with one-sidedness in the optimization weighted determination,this paper suggests the hesitance degree weighted combination method： the optimal weight combination of attributes can be obtained thought solving linear programming and setting certainty coefficients;the intuition fuzzy set is used to fully express the hesitance degree information in decision-making,whereby the scheduling scheme is ranked in terms of calculating relative closeness degree by the combination method.The experiment dates indicate that the combination method can make the effective and rational scheduling decision of reservoir floods in different periods via regulating certainty coefficients.