可再生能源投资决策行为影响因素实证分析与政策启示

An Positive Study and Policy Enlightenment of Influencing Factors in Renewable Energy Investment Decision-Making Behaviors

缺乏对投资决策过程中投资者行为影响因素的考量是当前许多政策未取得理想效果的主要原因。基于行为决策理论,通过构建可再生能源投资决策行为分析概念模型,定性描述可再生能源投资决策行为影响因素之间的因果关系。采用定量和定性相结合的方法对模型中的变量进行测量与多元回归分析。研究结果表明投资者的先验信念、政策偏好和技术风险态度对投资决策有显著影响,并且投资组合中可再生能源的份额(即投资者的决策结果)与其投资组合的业绩正相关。据此,提出了该研究结果对提高可再生能源投资政策有效性的政策启示。

Lack of full consideration of the influencing factors of the investors＇s behaviors in the process of investment decision-making can be the main reason why many current policies have failed to obtain the realistic results.This paper makes a quantitative description of causual relations among the infuencing factors concerning the renewable energy investment decision-making behaviors through establishing the analytical conceptual model for the renewable energy investment decision-making behaviors based on the behavior decision-making theory.Also,the method of combining quality and quantity is adopted to carry out the measurement and regression analysis of the variables in the model.The research results indicate that the priori beliefs,preference for policy and technological risk attitude held by the investors may have an obvious effect upon the investment policy,and that the renewable energy shares（i.e.the decision-making results by the investor）in the investment combination are found to be in the posivie correlation with the performances of investment combination,on the basis of which,this paper points out that research results can improve the policy enlightment for the efficiency of renewable energy investment policy.