信息化对城市化的影响研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Informationization upon Urbanization——Positive Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

提出了信息化影响城市化的三种机制,建立了城市化影响因素模型,利用我国30个省份2000—2009年的面板数据对模型进行了实证分析。结果显示邮电业务总量每增加1%,城市化率增加大约0.007%。对东、中、西三个区域进一步的考察结果显示,信息化对西部城市化的促进作用大于东部和中部。最终研究结论表明信息化对城市化具有促进作用,但是与其他影响城市化因素相比其促进作用有限。

Three mechanisms of the impact of informationization on urbanization are put forward.A model of factors affecting urbanization is established and the model is positively analyzed using the annual panel data of 30 provinces from the years of 2000 to 2009 in our country.The results show that if the business volume of postal and telecommunication services increase by 1%,the rate of urbanization will increase by about 0.007%.And then,the three regions（east,central and west） are further studied.The results show that the effect of informationization in promoting urbanization in west is larger than that in east and west.The results of this study show that informationization plays a role in promoting urbanization,but less obvious role,compared to other factors affecting the urbanization.