运用图型动力学观点研究地震的孕育与发生

Study on the Seismogeny and Occurrence of Earthquakes by Using Pattern Dynamics

从细观损伤力学及损伤演化的角度探索地震活动中的演化诱致发震是一种全新的方法。本文简要介绍了细观损伤演化诱致突变理论和图型动力学的基本原理 ,并对首都圈地区张家口 -渤海地震带上ML5 0以上地震进行分析研究。结果表明 ,实际震例与图型动力学理论存在较好的一致性 ,按演化的最终状态可分为两种演化模式 ,即整体稳定模式 (GS模 )和演化诱致突变模式 (EIC模 ) ,两模式间没有明显界限 ,存在过渡区 ,过渡区明确给出了地震孕育过程的不确定性和随机影响的作用。此研究为地震预报提供了更为科学的思路和方法。

The meso\|scope damage dynamics and damage evolution had been applied to probe the evolution process induced catastrophe in the earthquake activity.It is a new method.A brief introduction of the basic principle about damage dynamics and evolution was made in this paper.At the same time,using the theory of the pattern dynamics,we studied all earthquakes ( M L≥5 0) which located on Zhangjiakou\|Bohai Sea earthquake belt in the capital zone.The results suggest that the preparation and happening of the real earthquakes and the theory are consistent.There are two kinds of evolution model according to the final state,namely,global stability model (GS) and evolution induced catastrophe model (EIC).The two models haven't evident boundary.The transient zone exhibits the indeterminacy of the seismic process and the effect of the random variation.This research proposed new approaches for earthquake prediction.