基于GIS-SD的大连湾水污染时空模拟与调控策略研究

A GIS-SD-based Spatio-temporal Modelling and Regulating Policies on Water Pollution in Dalian Gulf

大连湾可持续发展的矛盾是一个动态现象 ,同时这些矛盾也涉及到空间因子 (例如 ,污染物浓度分布与环境功能区划等 )。为了探讨和模拟各种发展方案 (不同的经济增长和城市化 )的矛盾机理 ,将系统动力学 (SD)方法和地理信息系统 (GIS)方法结合起来 ,提出了一个新的可操作的GIS_SD结合的概念框架 ,建立了大连湾水污染与控制系统模型 ,并进行了时空模拟和调控策略研究 ,模拟了该区域的不同增长计划 (方案 )对海域环境质量的影响。从而可以帮助决策者在二维空间上考虑动态的环境与发展的矛盾 ,并借助于SD的多方案实验方法提供解决办法的供选策略。SD(动态模拟 )和GIS(空间模拟 )结合的方法可以互补GIS和SD的优缺点 ,可以更全面地描述、解析和模拟一个复杂系统 (例如复杂结构、时间动态和空间因素等 ) ,有助于解决复杂系统问题。

The contradictions for sustainable development of Dalian gulf are dynamic. These contradictions involve spatial factors (e.g. the concentration distribution of pollutants and environmental function division, etc.). In order to deal with and simulate contradictory mechanisms of various developing plans (various economic increase plans and urbanization plans) of the area along Dalian gulf, this paper puts forward a new conceptual GIS_SD frame in order to simulate the water pollution_controlling system of Dalian gulf. The model of the system is built. The water pollution of Dalian gulf is modeled temporally and spatially, and regulating strategies are worked out. This paper simulates the impacts on environmental quality of Dalian gulf by various development plans of the area. The combination of SD (Dynamic Modelling) and GIS (Spatial Modelling) are mutually complementary. This may describe, analyze and stimulate a complex system (e.g. complex structure, timely dynamics, and spatial factors, etc.), and contribute to solve complex system problems. This helps decision_maker consider dynamic contradictions of environment and development in two dimensions.