2015年中国钢铁需求预测

Prediction of iron & steel demand in China in 2015

系统分析和比较了预测未来中国钢铁需求的主要方法,选择了生命曲线Verhulst模型预测,以1988年至2009年中国钢材实际表观消费量为基础,预测未来2015年中国粗钢消费量,同时考虑到重复加工钢材所消耗的粗钢因素,以及钢材直接和间接出口等影响因素,未来中国钢铁需求的峰值将在2015年到达7.6亿t。

The principal methods for prediction of the iron steel demand in China in the future are systematically analyzed and compared and in the meanwhile the life curve Verhulst prediction model is selected for prediction of crude steel consumption in China in 2015 on the basis of actual apparent consumption of steel products in China from 1988 to 2009 in consideration of such a few factors as the crude steel consumption in the repetitive process of the steel products and the influence of the direct and indirect export of the steel products.In the end it＇s predicted that the peak value of the iron steel demand in China in 2015 will come up to 760 million tons.