基于时间序列的高速公路软基沉降预测研究

Forecasting Expressway Subsidence on Soft Foundation Based on Time Series Analysis

简要介绍了时间序列分析的基本原理、方法及其模型的建立,通过路基沉降监测实例对模型进行了检验,并对路基沉降趋势进行了预报。预报值与实测值的比较结果表明:时间序列模型具有较高的拟合精度和预报的可靠度,可用于描述路基沉降变化规律。

The basic principle, method and steps of model establishing of time uced briefly in the paper. The model which is checked by subsidence monitoring of series analysis are introd- subgrade example forecasts the subsidence tendency of subgrade subsidence. The comparison between measured value and prediction value proves that the time series model has high fitting precision and forecasting reliability, which can be used to de- scribe the variation regularity of subgrade subsidence.