我国不同地区自然人群甲肝平均感染力的定量研究

Quantitative Study on Average Infectious Hepatitis A in Natural Populations in Different Regions in China

目的估计我国不同地区自然人群甲肝的平均感染力,为甲肝免疫策略定量研究提供基础参数。方法依据1992年全国病毒性肝炎血清流行病学调查资料,按各地调整的甲肝抗体流行率将全国划分为高度、中高度、中度、中低度和低度流行区。用简单催化模型对不同流行区的甲肝流行率资料进行拟合,估计甲肝的平均感染力。结果甲肝的平均感染力从高度到低度流行区分别为44.02%、23.09%、17.50%、10.24%和5.26%,拟合优度χ2检验后,P值均大于0.05。结论在自然人群中用简单催化模型拟合甲肝流行率资料,效果良好,获得的平均感染力数据可作为甲肝免疫策略定量研究中的基础参数。

Objective To estimate the average infectious power of hepatitis A in natural population in different regions of China, and provide basic parameters for the quantitative research of hepatitis A immunization strategies. Methods According to the data of the prevalence of hepatitis A antibodies in National Epidemiologieal survey of hepatitis in 1992, different regions were divided into a high, medium high, medium, medium low and low prevalence areas. Simple catalytic model was used to fit different prevalence rates of hepatitis A, and estimate the average infectious power of hepatitis A. Results The average infectious power of hepatitis A from high areas to low were： 44.02% , 23.09% , 17.50% , 10.24% and 5.26% respectively, The test of fitting goodness showed P values were greater than 0.05. Conclusion In natural populations of hepatitis A, using simple catalytic model fitting prevalence data can gain good effect. Data on average infectious power of hepatitis A provide basic parameters for the quantitative research of hepatitis A immunization strategies.