银行信贷、利率调整对房地产价格的影响分析

An Analysis of the Impact of Bank Credit and Interest Rate Adjustment on Real Estate Price

本文以R市为例,运用向量自回归(VAR)、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应(IRF)、方差分解等方法,对不同货币政策阶段房地产贷款、利率调整与房价波动的关系进行了实证研究与比较。结果表明:房地产价格波动和房地产信贷规模在长期存在稳定均衡关系,银行信贷对房地产价格波动具有重要的推动作用;不同货币政策阶段房贷对房价变动的影响幅度存在差异性,宽松货币政策阶段房贷对房价波动影响幅度相对较大;利率调整对房价上涨以抑制作用为主。

Taking the case of R city, the paper makes a combination of empirical study and comparative study on the relationship of bank credit, interest rate adjustment and housing price fluctuations within different monetary policy period, with the method of vec- tor auto regression, cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The result shows that there is an equilibrium relationship between real estate price fluctuation and bank credit in the long term and bank credit impels re- al estate price fluctuation effectively. There are differences within different stages of monetary policy on the amplitude of effects. The amplitude of effects within the loose policy is relatively high. The impact of interest rate adjustment on real estate price fluctuation is mainly inhibitory.