实证宏观经济学的重塑与发展——2011年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者的重大贡献

Reconstruction and Development of Empirical Macroeconomics

萨金特和西姆斯因重塑和发展了现代实证宏观经济学而获得2011年诺贝尔经济学奖。从1970年代开始,基于凯恩斯宏观经济大型模型的传统实证方法不再稳定,在评价以预期为中心的宏观经济学动态模型时无法识别和分析外在冲击。而萨金特和西姆斯分别提出的现代结构宏观计量经济学和向量自回归(VAR),改变了宏观经济学的发展方向,构成宏观经济实证研究的核心内容,成为学术界和政策制定机构方法论研究和应用研究中不可或缺的重要文献。

Sargent and Sims are awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics because of their contributions to reconstructing and developing empirical macroeconomics.Instabilities appeared in the predominant macroeconometric paradigm of 1970s built around the Keynesian macroeconomic models,which failed to identify and analyze the external shocks when evaluating dynamic models of the macroeconomy with a central role for expectations.The modern structural macroeconometrics developed by Sargent and VAR by Sims have changed the course of macroeconomics dramatically.Their contributions constitute the core content of the macroeconomic empirical research,and indispensable empirical methods in modern academic communities and policymaking agencies.