基于反事实场景技术的农村公路项目影响评价

Counterfactual Scene Approach-based Impact Evaluation of Rural Road Projects

由于受到其他惠农因素的影响,农村公路项目建设对农村地区的影响效果一直难以准确评价.基于反事实场景技术,通过设置农村公路项目的处理组与对照组,构建了基于多层回归模型和计量经济模型框架的农村公路项目影响评估模型.使用来自福建省68个村庄816个农户的大样本随机抽样调查得到的面板数据,实证了农村公路项目对提高农民收入的影响.结果表明:与传统的"前后对比"方法相比,基于反事实场景技术的农村公路项目影响评价方法能更加客观地评估由农村公路项目所产生的效益.

It is difficult to evaluate the effect of rural road projects for many factors other than the rural road projects itself.Based on a quasi-experimental household-level panel data collected from 816 families of 68 villages of Fujian Province of China,an impact evaluation model based on counterfactual scene approach was established on the basis of a multi-degree regression analysis model and an econometric model to investigate the effect of a rural road project by comparing the treatment and control villages before and after project implementation.The investigation results show that rural road projects are helpful for the income,political life and even the relationship with relatives and friends.The proposed evaluation model based on counterfactual scene approach proves to be feasible to evaluate the impact of rural road projects.